Documentation Index
Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://hc.pillargtm.com/llms.txt
Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
Renewal Risk Score
The renewal risk score identifies accounts at risk of churn by evaluating multiple dimensions of account health. Higher scores indicate higher churn risk.
What It Measures
PILLAR’s renewal risk model analyzes 8 weighted variables spanning customer engagement, support health, contracting activity, stakeholder stability, satisfaction, market conditions, and payment patterns. Each variable contributes to a composite risk score on a 0-100 scale.
A 9th post-processing factor — the Renewal Urgency Amplifier — multiplies the base risk score as the renewal date approaches, ensuring that pre-existing risk is surfaced with appropriate urgency.
Weighted Variables
| Variable | Default Weight | What Feeds It | What It Measures |
|---|
| Engagement Decay | 25% | CRM activity logs, product usage connectors (Pendo, Mixpanel, etc.) | Percentage decline in usage/engagement. Uses an amplified curve: 10% drop = moderate risk, 20% = serious, 35%+ = maximum risk |
| Support Burden | 20% | Support ticket connectors (Intercom, Zendesk, Freshdesk), HubSpot Service Hub, Salesforce Service Cloud | Escalation percentage from support tickets. Computed from support_ticket_snapshots when available, falls back to accounts.support_escalation_pct |
| Contracting Lag | 15% | CRM opportunity/renewal records | Days without contracting activity as renewal approaches. Derived from contracting_momentum on the active renewal. Low momentum = high lag = high risk |
| Executive Sponsor Gap | 10% | CRM contact records (is_exec_sponsor flag) | Binary: is there an active executive sponsor on the account? No sponsor = 100 sub-score |
| NPS Health | 10% | NPS connectors (Wootric, Delighted), CRM fields | NPS score on a 0-10 scale. Below 6 = maximum risk, 7 = moderate, 8 = low, 9-10 = no risk. Defaults to 7 (neutral) when unavailable |
| Market Context | 10% | Starbridge district intelligence (budget trends, tech spend allocation, grant dependency) | Institutional budget health. Uses YoY budget trend (50%), tech budget as % of total (30%), and grant dependency (20%). Defaults to neutral when Starbridge data is unavailable |
| Stakeholder Turnover | 5% | CRM contact records (INACTIVE status) | Count of contacts who have gone inactive. 0 = no risk, 1 = 33, 2 = 67, 3+ = maximum risk |
| Payment History | 5% | CRM payment fields (payment_health) | Late payment count. 0 late = no risk, 1 = 30, 2 = 60, 3+ = maximum risk |
Renewal Urgency Amplifier
The urgency amplifier is a post-processing multiplier that boosts the base risk score as the renewal date approaches. It ensures that a risky account 2 days from renewal is treated very differently from a risky account 6 months out.
| Days to Renewal | Urgency Factor | Effect on a Base Score of 60 |
|---|
| 0-3 days | 1.0 | 60 + 30 = 90 |
| 4-7 days | 0.9 | 60 + 27 = 87 |
| 8-14 days | 0.75 | 60 + 23 = 83 |
| 15-30 days | 0.5 | 60 + 15 = 75 |
| 31-60 days | 0.3 | 60 + 9 = 69 |
| 61-90 days | 0.15 | 60 + 5 = 65 |
| 91-180 days | 0.05 | 60 + 2 = 62 |
| 180+ days | 0.0 | 60 (no change) |
Risk Severity Thresholds
PILLAR uses calibrated thresholds designed to catch risk 2-3x earlier than industry benchmarks:
| Severity | Score Threshold | Industry Standard |
|---|
| Low | 0-19 | 0-49 |
| Medium | 20-34 | 50-69 |
| High | 35-54 | 70-84 |
| Critical | 55+ | 85+ |
Market Context (Starbridge-Enhanced)
When Starbridge district intelligence data is available, PILLAR enriches the renewal risk model with institutional budget trends, technology spending allocation, and funding source analysis. This provides early warning of budget-driven churn risk that traditional engagement signals miss.
When Starbridge data is unavailable, PILLAR uses a neutral default for market context.
Risk-Driven Actions
When renewal risk exceeds configurable thresholds, PILLAR generates signals and can trigger automated save plays:
| Risk Level | Recommended Response |
|---|
| Low | Monitor in standard cadence |
| Medium | Review in weekly cadence |
| High | Proactive outreach, assign save play |
| Critical | Immediate executive intervention |
Onboarding Risk
PILLAR also evaluates post-close implementation risk on late-stage and recently closed deals. This includes deal complexity, stakeholder depth at close, expectation alignment, and implementation scope — helping CS teams anticipate onboarding challenges before they become retention problems.
Customization
All renewal risk weights, thresholds, and severity classifications are configurable per organization through your scoring profile settings.
All weights and thresholds shown above are the defaults (model version 1.3.0-renewal-urgency). Your organization can customize variable weights and severity thresholds through Settings > Scoring > Weight Configuration.
