Renewal Risk Score
The renewal risk score (renewals.risk_score) is computed from 8 weighted variables. Higher scores indicate higher churn risk. The model version is 1.2.0-calibrated.
8-Variable Model
| Variable | Default Weight | Input | Scoring Logic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engagement Decay | 25% | engagement_decay_pct | Amplified curve: 10% drop = moderate, 35%+ = max risk |
| Support Burden | 20% | support_escalation_pct | Tiered: 80%+ = 100, 60%+ = 70, scaled |
| Contracting Lag | 15% | contracting_lag_days | 120+ days = 100, scaled down |
| Exec Sponsor Gap | 10% | exec_sponsor_active | Binary: no sponsor = 100, active = 0 |
| NPS Health | 10% | nps_score (0-10) | under 6 = 100, 7 = 60, 8 = 30, 9+ = 0 |
| Market Context | 10% | budget_trend_yoy (Starbridge) | Composite: budget trend (50%), tech budget % (30%), grant dependency (20%) |
| Stakeholder Turnover | 5% | stakeholder_turnover_count | 0 = 0, 1 = 33, 2 = 67, 3+ = 100 |
| Payment History | 5% | late_payments | 0 = 0, 1 = 30, 2 = 60, 3+ = 100 |
Market Context (Starbridge-Enhanced)
When Starbridge data is available, the market context variable uses a composite:| Sub-factor | Weight | Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Budget trend | 50% | below -5% YoY = 80, below 0% = 50, below 5% = 30, 5%+ = 0 |
| Tech budget % of total | 30% | below 2% = 60, below 5% = 30, 5%+ = 0 |
| Grant dependency | 20% | over 30% grant dependent = 20 risk points |
Risk Rules (RSK-001 to RSK-012)
| Rule | Name | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSK-001 | Computed renewal risk | 9 | Pass-through of renewal risk score |
| RSK-002 | Budget decline risk | 7 | Risk from declining Starbridge budgets |
| RSK-003 | Payment delinquency risk | 6 | Late payment patterns |
| RSK-004 | Support escalation risk | 7 | High escalation rate and critical tickets |
| RSK-005 | Competitive threat level | 7 | Competitor contracts, pricing pressure |
| RSK-006 | Market context risk | 6 | Budget crises, grant dependency |
| RSK-007 | Silent churn pattern | 9 | Compound: no activity + neutral NPS + declining usage |
| RSK-008 | Revenue concentration risk | 8 | High ARR + high risk = urgent attention |
| RSK-009 | Engagement decay rate | 7 | Speed of engagement decline |
| RSK-010 | Imminent renewal risk | 9 | Approaching renewal + high risk + no save play |
| RSK-011 | Procurement timing risk | 5 | High procurement complexity near renewal |
| RSK-012 | NPS detractor risk | 7 | NPS ≤ 6 (detractor) |
Onboarding Risk Rules (OB-001 to OB-004)
These rules are categorized under Risk and evaluate post-close implementation risk:| Rule | Name | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| OB-001 | Deal complexity score | 6 | Implementation complexity from deal size + product count |
| OB-002 | Stakeholder depth at close | 7 | Contact breadth and quality at close |
| OB-003 | Expectation alignment | 6 | Next steps and EB alignment on late-stage deals |
| OB-004 | Implementation scope risk | 5 | Product count and deal size scope analysis |
Severity Classification
| Score Range | Severity | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | Low | Monitor |
| 20-35 | Medium | Review in weekly cadence |
| 35-55 | High | Proactive outreach, assign save play |
| 55-75 | Critical | Immediate executive intervention |
| 75+ | Critical | All-hands save effort |