Renewal Risk Score

The renewal risk score identifies accounts at risk of churn by evaluating multiple dimensions of account health. Higher scores indicate higher churn risk.

What It Measures

PILLAR’s renewal risk model analyzes 8 weighted variables spanning customer engagement, support health, contracting activity, stakeholder stability, satisfaction, market conditions, and payment patterns. Each variable contributes to a composite risk score on a 0-100 scale. A 9th post-processing factor — the Renewal Urgency Amplifier — multiplies the base risk score as the renewal date approaches, ensuring that pre-existing risk is surfaced with appropriate urgency.

Weighted Variables

Variable	Default Weight	What Feeds It	What It Measures
Engagement Decay	25%	CRM activity logs, product usage connectors (Pendo, Mixpanel, etc.)	Percentage decline in usage/engagement. Uses an amplified curve: 10% drop = moderate risk, 20% = serious, 35%+ = maximum risk
Support Burden	20%	Support ticket connectors (Intercom, Zendesk, Freshdesk), HubSpot Service Hub, Salesforce Service Cloud	Escalation percentage from support tickets. Computed from `support_ticket_snapshots` when available, falls back to `accounts.support_escalation_pct`
Contracting Lag	15%	CRM opportunity/renewal records	Days without contracting activity as renewal approaches. Derived from `contracting_momentum` on the active renewal. Low momentum = high lag = high risk
Executive Sponsor Gap	10%	CRM contact records (`is_exec_sponsor` flag)	Binary: is there an active executive sponsor on the account? No sponsor = 100 sub-score
NPS Health	10%	NPS connectors (Wootric, Delighted), CRM fields	NPS score on a 0-10 scale. Below 6 = maximum risk, 7 = moderate, 8 = low, 9-10 = no risk. Defaults to 7 (neutral) when unavailable
Market Context	10%	Starbridge district intelligence (budget trends, tech spend allocation, grant dependency)	Institutional budget health. Uses YoY budget trend (50%), tech budget as % of total (30%), and grant dependency (20%). Defaults to neutral when Starbridge data is unavailable
Stakeholder Turnover	5%	CRM contact records (INACTIVE status)	Count of contacts who have gone inactive. 0 = no risk, 1 = 33, 2 = 67, 3+ = maximum risk
Payment History	5%	CRM payment fields (`payment_health`)	Late payment count. 0 late = no risk, 1 = 30, 2 = 60, 3+ = maximum risk

Renewal Urgency Amplifier

The urgency amplifier is a post-processing multiplier that boosts the base risk score as the renewal date approaches. It ensures that a risky account 2 days from renewal is treated very differently from a risky account 6 months out.

Days to Renewal	Urgency Factor	Effect on a Base Score of 60
0-3 days	1.0	60 + 30 = 90
4-7 days	0.9	60 + 27 = 87
8-14 days	0.75	60 + 23 = 83
15-30 days	0.5	60 + 15 = 75
31-60 days	0.3	60 + 9 = 69
61-90 days	0.15	60 + 5 = 65
91-180 days	0.05	60 + 2 = 62
180+ days	0.0	60 (no change)

The maximum boost coefficient is 0.5, meaning the amplifier can add up to half the base score. A healthy account (base score 15) with an imminent renewal only gets a small bump (15 + 8 = 23), while an unhealthy account (base score 60) gets a large bump (60 + 30 = 90).

Risk Severity Thresholds

PILLAR uses calibrated thresholds designed to catch risk 2-3x earlier than industry benchmarks:

Severity	Score Threshold	Industry Standard
Low	0-19	0-49
Medium	20-34	50-69
High	35-54	70-84
Critical	55+	85+

Market Context (Starbridge-Enhanced)

When Starbridge district intelligence data is available, PILLAR enriches the renewal risk model with institutional budget trends, technology spending allocation, and funding source analysis. This provides early warning of budget-driven churn risk that traditional engagement signals miss. When Starbridge data is unavailable, PILLAR uses a neutral default for market context.

Risk-Driven Actions

When renewal risk exceeds configurable thresholds, PILLAR generates signals and can trigger automated save plays:

Risk Level	Recommended Response
Low	Monitor in standard cadence
Medium	Review in weekly cadence
High	Proactive outreach, assign save play
Critical	Immediate executive intervention

Onboarding Risk

PILLAR also evaluates post-close implementation risk on late-stage and recently closed deals. This includes deal complexity, stakeholder depth at close, expectation alignment, and implementation scope — helping CS teams anticipate onboarding challenges before they become retention problems.

Customization

All renewal risk weights, thresholds, and severity classifications are configurable per organization through your scoring profile settings. All weights and thresholds shown above are the defaults (model version 1.3.0-renewal-urgency). Your organization can customize variable weights and severity thresholds through Settings > Scoring > Weight Configuration.

​Renewal Risk Score

​What It Measures

​Weighted Variables

​Renewal Urgency Amplifier

​Risk Severity Thresholds

​Market Context (Starbridge-Enhanced)

​Risk-Driven Actions

​Onboarding Risk

​Customization