Forecast Confidence Score
The forecast confidence score (opportunities.confidence_score) measures how reliable a deal forecast is. Higher score = MORE confident (inverted from hygiene). Uses 7 weighted variables.
7-Variable Model
| Variable | Default Weight | Input | Scoring Logic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stage Probability | 20% | stage_probability | Direct pass-through (0-100) |
| Deal Hygiene | 20% | hygiene_score | Inverted: 100 - hygiene_score |
| Engagement Velocity | 15% | Meetings per 30 days | 4+ = 100, 2+ = 70, 1 = 40, 0 = 10 |
| Competitor Risk | 15% | competitor_risk (0-100) | Inverted: 100 - competitor_risk |
| Executive Engagement | 10% | executive_engagement | Yes = 100, No = 20 |
| Historical Win Rate | 10% | historical_win_rate | Direct pass-through (0-100) |
| Procurement Alignment | 10% | Starbridge composite | Complexity (40%), coop pathway (35%), fiscal alignment (25%) |
Procurement Alignment (Starbridge-Enhanced)
When Starbridge data is available:| Sub-factor | Weight | Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Procurement complexity | 40% | over 70 = 20, over 50 = 50, 50 or under = 80 |
| Coop pathway exists | 35% | Yes = 80, No = 30 |
| Fiscal year aligned | 25% | Aligned = 80, Misaligned = 20 |
PILLAR Forecast Categories
PILLAR uses a 5-band forecast system with probability-weighted amounts:| Category | Probability Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 100% | Closed and booked |
| Commit | 100% | Rep commits to closing this period |
| Probable | 50% | Strong likelihood but not committed |
| Upside | 25% | Possible but uncertain |
| Projection | 15% | Long-shot or stretch target |
Forecast Bands
| Band | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Low Band | Won + Commit (100% weighted) |
| Medium Band | + Probable (50% weighted) |
| High Band | + Upside (25% weighted) |
| Moonshot Band | + Projection (15% weighted) |
Opportunity Quality Rules (OQ-001 to OQ-011)
These rules evaluate overall deal quality and winnability:| Rule | Name | Weight | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| OQ-001 | Deal size quality | 7 | Larger deals = higher strategic value |
| OQ-002 | Win probability assessment | 8 | Adjusted probability (deductions for missing EB, next step, pushes) |
| OQ-003 | Competitive positioning | 7 | No competitor = 90, strategy defined = 60, no strategy = 25 |
| OQ-004 | Buyer readiness signals | 8 | Budget + exec + timeline + procurement (25 pts each) |
| OQ-005 | Rep win rate factor | 5 | Historical rep performance |
| OQ-006 | Expansion readiness composite | 8 | Champion + usage + whitespace + budget + NPS |
| OQ-007 | Deal engagement quality | 6 | Meeting frequency + contact seniority + exec involvement |
| OQ-008 | Procurement pathway clarity | 6 | Complexity + coop + fiscal alignment |
| OQ-009 | Strategic value assessment | 5 | Reference potential, logo value, tier |
| OQ-010 | Fiscal year timing alignment | 5 | Close date vs fiscal year alignment |
| OQ-011 | Forecast confidence level | 7 | Pass-through of confidence_score |