> ## Documentation Index > Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://hc.pillargtm.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further. # Renewal Risk > Multi-variable renewal risk model with market context # Renewal Risk Score The renewal risk score identifies accounts at risk of churn by evaluating multiple dimensions of account health. Higher scores indicate higher churn risk. ## What It Measures PILLAR's renewal risk model analyzes 8 weighted variables spanning customer engagement, support health, contracting activity, stakeholder stability, satisfaction, market conditions, and payment patterns. Each variable contributes to a composite risk score on a 0-100 scale. A 9th post-processing factor -- the **Renewal Urgency Amplifier** -- multiplies the base risk score as the renewal date approaches, ensuring that pre-existing risk is surfaced with appropriate urgency. ### Weighted Variables | Variable | Default Weight | What Feeds It | What It Measures | | --------------------- | -------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | Engagement Decay | **25%** | CRM activity logs, product usage connectors (Pendo, Mixpanel, etc.) | Percentage decline in usage/engagement. Uses an amplified curve: 10% drop = moderate risk, 20% = serious, 35%+ = maximum risk | | Support Burden | **20%** | Support ticket connectors (Intercom, Zendesk, Freshdesk), HubSpot Service Hub, Salesforce Service Cloud | Escalation percentage from support tickets. Computed from `support_ticket_snapshots` when available, falls back to `accounts.support_escalation_pct` | | Contracting Lag | **15%** | CRM opportunity/renewal records | Days without contracting activity as renewal approaches. Derived from `contracting_momentum` on the active renewal. Low momentum = high lag = high risk | | Executive Sponsor Gap | **10%** | CRM contact records (`is_exec_sponsor` flag) | Binary: is there an active executive sponsor on the account? No sponsor = 100 sub-score | | NPS Health | **10%** | NPS connectors (Wootric, Delighted), CRM fields | NPS score on a 0-10 scale. Below 6 = maximum risk, 7 = moderate, 8 = low, 9-10 = no risk. Defaults to 7 (neutral) when unavailable | | Market Context | **10%** | Starbridge district intelligence (budget trends, tech spend allocation, grant dependency) | Institutional budget health. Uses YoY budget trend (50%), tech budget as % of total (30%), and grant dependency (20%). Defaults to neutral when Starbridge data is unavailable | | Stakeholder Turnover | **5%** | CRM contact records (INACTIVE status) | Count of contacts who have gone inactive. 0 = no risk, 1 = 33, 2 = 67, 3+ = maximum risk | | Payment History | **5%** | CRM payment fields (`payment_health`) | Late payment count. 0 late = no risk, 1 = 30, 2 = 60, 3+ = maximum risk | ### Renewal Urgency Amplifier The urgency amplifier is a post-processing multiplier that boosts the base risk score as the renewal date approaches. It ensures that a risky account 2 days from renewal is treated very differently from a risky account 6 months out. | Days to Renewal | Urgency Factor | Effect on a Base Score of 60 | | --------------- | -------------- | ---------------------------- | | 0-3 days | 1.0 | 60 + 30 = **90** | | 4-7 days | 0.9 | 60 + 27 = **87** | | 8-14 days | 0.75 | 60 + 23 = **83** | | 15-30 days | 0.5 | 60 + 15 = **75** | | 31-60 days | 0.3 | 60 + 9 = **69** | | 61-90 days | 0.15 | 60 + 5 = **65** | | 91-180 days | 0.05 | 60 + 2 = **62** | | 180+ days | 0.0 | **60** (no change) | The maximum boost coefficient is 0.5, meaning the amplifier can add up to half the base score. A healthy account (base score 15) with an imminent renewal only gets a small bump (15 + 8 = 23), while an unhealthy account (base score 60) gets a large bump (60 + 30 = 90). ### Risk Severity Thresholds PILLAR uses calibrated thresholds designed to catch risk 2-3x earlier than industry benchmarks: | Severity | Score Threshold | Industry Standard | | -------- | --------------- | ----------------- | | Low | 0-19 | 0-49 | | Medium | 20-34 | 50-69 | | High | 35-54 | 70-84 | | Critical | 55+ | 85+ | ## Market Context (Starbridge-Enhanced) When Starbridge district intelligence data is available, PILLAR enriches the renewal risk model with institutional budget trends, technology spending allocation, and funding source analysis. This provides early warning of budget-driven churn risk that traditional engagement signals miss. When Starbridge data is unavailable, PILLAR uses a neutral default for market context. ## Risk-Driven Actions When renewal risk exceeds configurable thresholds, PILLAR generates signals and can trigger automated save plays: | Risk Level | Recommended Response | | ---------- | ------------------------------------ | | Low | Monitor in standard cadence | | Medium | Review in weekly cadence | | High | Proactive outreach, assign save play | | Critical | Immediate executive intervention | ## Onboarding Risk PILLAR also evaluates post-close implementation risk on late-stage and recently closed deals. This includes deal complexity, stakeholder depth at close, expectation alignment, and implementation scope -- helping CS teams anticipate onboarding challenges before they become retention problems. ## Customization All renewal risk weights, thresholds, and severity classifications are configurable per organization through your scoring profile settings. All weights and thresholds shown above are the defaults (model version `1.3.0-renewal-urgency`). Your organization can customize variable weights and severity thresholds through **Settings > Scoring > Weight Configuration**.