> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://hc.pillargtm.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Renewal Forecasting

> Probabilistic renewal modeling with per-account risk/signal decomposition, GRR/NRR projections, and org-level forecast snapshots

# Renewal Forecasting

The Renewal Forecasting engine computes a probability of renewal for every upcoming renewal in your portfolio, then aggregates those probabilities into org-level GRR and NRR projections. Each probability is decomposed into explicit risk factors and positive signals so teams can see exactly why a renewal is confident or at risk.

<Note>
  Renewal Forecasting builds on data from the [Scoring Engine](/scoring/overview) (health scores, risk scores) and the [Signals](/signals/overview) taxonomy (critical signal detection). It does not replace those systems -- it consumes their outputs to produce forward-looking retention projections.
</Note>

## How It Works

```
Scoring Engine (entity-level)
  → Health score, risk score, engagement score

Renewal Forecasting Engine
  → Per-renewal probability (0.01–0.99)
  → Risk factor decomposition (what's dragging probability down)
  → Positive signal decomposition (what's boosting probability)
  → Org-level GRR / NRR projection (ARR-weighted)
  → Forecast snapshot (persisted for trend analysis)
```

## Probability Model

Each renewal receives a probability score between 0.01 and 0.99 computed from multiple input signals including:

* **Health Score** -- Current account health level
* **Risk Score** -- Renewal risk assessment
* **Engagement Score** -- Activity and usage patterns
* **Disposition** -- Current renewal lifecycle state
* **Days to Renewal** -- Proximity to renewal date and urgency
* **Active Playbooks** -- Whether intervention plays are in progress
* **Critical Signals** -- Recent critical signals on the account
* **NPS Score** -- Customer satisfaction level
* **Contract Tenure** -- Length of customer relationship
* **Deal Size** -- ARR-based scrutiny adjustment

Each factor adjusts the probability up or down from a calibrated baseline. The final value is clamped to a valid probability range.

> Exact model weights, base probability, adjustment formulas, and clamp values are available in the PILLAR Implementation Guide provided to active customers.

## Confidence Tiers

Each renewal is classified into a confidence tier based on its computed probability:

| Tier         | Meaning                                      |
| ------------ | -------------------------------------------- |
| **high**     | Renewal is highly likely                     |
| **medium**   | Some risk factors present                    |
| **at\_risk** | Significant risk -- intervention recommended |

## Org-Level Projections

The engine aggregates per-renewal probabilities into portfolio-level metrics:

| Metric                   | Description                                   |
| ------------------------ | --------------------------------------------- |
| **Projected GRR**        | ARR-weighted average of renewal probabilities |
| **Projected NRR**        | GRR adjusted for expansion rate               |
| **Weighted Renewal ARR** | Probability-weighted sum across all renewals  |
| **High Confidence ARR**  | ARR from high-confidence renewals             |
| **At-Risk ARR**          | ARR from at-risk renewals                     |

## Data Model

PILLAR stores org-level forecast snapshots for trend tracking and per-renewal probability computations with full risk/signal decomposition. Each forecast is versioned and keyed by organization and period.

> Detailed data model schemas are available in the PILLAR Implementation Guide provided to active customers.

## Period Formats

The forecast engine accepts multiple period formats:

| Format  | Example   | Range          |
| ------- | --------- | -------------- |
| Quarter | `2026-Q2` | Apr 1 - Jun 30 |
| Half    | `2026-H2` | Jul 1 - Dec 31 |
| Year    | `2026`    | Jan 1 - Dec 31 |

If no period is specified, the engine defaults to the next quarter.

## API Endpoint

```
GET  /api/forecasting/renewals
POST /api/forecasting/renewals
```

See the [Renewal Forecast API](/api/renewal-forecast) reference for full endpoint documentation.

## Access

Available to: CRO/CEO, VP Sales, VP CS, RevOps